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Professional Gambling Part 3

The following chapter is taken from mathematician-betting.com

4) Lack of Value Appreciation

Appreciation of "value" in a bet is core to long term success.
To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true
chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you
need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value bet in that race.
There is value to be had in every race. The key to it is understanding
where that value is. Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say
"At least I had some value". There is absolutely NO relationship between value and
prices. A 33/1 chance may be diabolical value yet a very short priced favourite may
be supreme value. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better
"value" you have . The value is sometimes clear but more often well hidden and it
takes a trained eye to see that.
Everyone has this "Foresight" on occasions, it is a game
about opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. Value can be the most
expensive word in racing if you can't bet winner. The old cliché is that value is about
betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects. That's only a small
part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right
races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank.
You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a
selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along.
Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best
bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges.
Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on
long term profits.



5) Greed For Instant Wealth

Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of
instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out
of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit,
turn a small stake into a large sum.
Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer
away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets
with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, and Goliath. The reason they are
heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more
selections you add to your multiple bet.
Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker
may have a theoretical edge in his favour of 15%. Taking two such selections
however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to
about 30% !
Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however
over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.
It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is 'best'. Unless your
prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is
more often the best option.
You may say that many "Pros," do bet in multiples in bets like The Scoop 6 or the
Jackpot, but that's only because they know there is plenty of "Dead" money in any
given Pool and they are betting against people who don't understand the dynamics of
those types of bet. There are times you should bet in multiples but in truth they are
few and far between.

You can't approach this as a "Get Rich Quick " scheme. It is a long slow process of
serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you go
Into any Betting shop, have a look at all the posters on the wall offering "special
offers", "enhanced terms " and "bonus offers". You will see they are all multiple bets.
Bookmakers want you betting in multiples and it is easy to see why . They carve most
profit from them. You never see a Bookmakers promotion offering extra's on a win or
each way single. Ask
yourself why .



6) Lack of Discipline

Lack of Discipline is the big hurdle for punters trying to turn a losing
hobby into a winning one. Bookmakers know that. That's why in every
betting office you can bet on numbers, lotteries, ball games, racing from all over the
globe with horses nobody has heard of before and even now computer animated, or as
they call it, virtual racing.
Bookmakers just believe that its a case of punters sitting all day betting on what ever
is put in front of them and sadly they are right in many cases .They are simply thrill
seeking and don't care what they bet on, as long as they can bet. There is no
methodology at all and many betting office regulars are simply a bunch of headless
chickens prepared to pay long term for the warming buzz of the occasional win.
Even more experienced regular gamblers who are savvy enough to turn down bets
that they know are stupid always let themselves
down by continually bleeding their profits with a fun tenner here and a fun tenner
there.
It takes great discipline to NOT bet at times. It takes discipline to walk away from a
horse when the price isn't right. It takes discipline to say no to that small fun bet. It
takes discipline to keep your money in your pocket and deny yourself the emotional
buzz of watching your runner.

Punters come in all shapes and sizes. Even the shrewder punters who could win at the
game, fall into the trap of lack of discipline
of study. After a winning period they forget that what made them winners in the first
place, was the effort they put in. They fall victim to
over confidence, laziness and indiscipline.
Being a long term successful punter is like swimming against the tide. It takes an
effort to stay still, even greater effort to move ahead and as soon as you relax or slack
off you start to go backwards.

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